Una aproximacion al sesgo de medicion del precio de las computadoras personales en Mexico.
Economia Mexicana › Vol. 15 Nbr. 1, January 2006
Linked as:
Extract
Una aproximacion al sesgo de medicion del precio de las computadoras personales en Mexico.
Resumen: Las mejoras de calidad de los productos ligados a las TI provocan que la compilación de sus índices de precios represente un desafío. En este sentido, los objetivos del documento son tres. En primer lugar, elaborar índices de precios de las PC para el periodo 1990-2004. En segundo lugar, compararlos con los compilados por el Banco de México, el Instituto Nacional de Estadística de España y el Bureau of Labor Statistics. En tercer lugar, explorar la viabilidad de la transferencia de funciones hedónicas entre países. Nuestro ejercicio indica que la variación media anual del precio de las PC fue de -21%. Parece entonces que el índice de precios del genérico "computadoras" contiene un significativo sesgo al alza. El ajuste conveniente al INPC implicaría que la inflación ascendió a 4.425%, y no a 4.463% como reporta el Banco Central para el periodo julio de 2003 a diciembre de 2004.
Palabras clave: índice de precios, computadora personal, regresión hedónica. Abstract: Changes in quality in information technology products provoke that compilation of their price indexes represent a major challenge. In this respect, this paper has three goals. In first place, to build price indexes for personal computers during 1990-2004. In second place, to compare our price indexes with those compiled by Mexican Central Bank, Spanish National Institute of Statistics, and Bureau of Labor Statistics. In third place, to make an exploration about the viability of hedonic functions transfer between countries. Our results show a 21% average decline of the PC price index during the analyzed period. In consequence, official price index related to computers has a measurement bias. The adjusted CPI implies that the inflation rate was 4.425%, and not 4.463% as established by the Central Bank between July 2003 and December 2004. Keywords: price index, personal computer, hedonic regression. If a poll were taken of professional economists and statisticians, in all probability they would designate (and by wide majority) the failure of the price indexes to take full account of quality changes as the most important defect in these indexes. And by almost as large a majority, they would believe that this failure introduces a systematic upward bias in the price indexes. GEORGE J. STIGLER et al. (1961, p. 35). Price indices are constructed by comparing prices of sampled products between two periods in time. Two conditions have to be fulfilled for this to yield reliable estimates: the products in the sample have to be representative of a whole product group and they should be comparable between the two periods. Rapid technical change means that neither condition easily holds in the case of ICT goods such as computers: models change very rapidly, and the price collector finds himself or herself in a position of comparing two non-identical products. And if only prices of those models that can be found in both periods are compared, there is a risk of using a non-representative sample [...] In a situation where the price collector has to compare two ...See the full content of this document
Sponsored links
